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WV post-mortem (D only)

May 14th 2008 21:32
On Tuesday, the Democratic Party held its West Virginia primary (the GOP's contest was held at a previous date). The results were as follows:

Democrats --
Clinton: 67%
Obama: 26%

Takeaways:

Democrats --
There's not much new to say after this primary. Obama still has a BIG problem drawing in white, working class voters. Nevertheless, the race is pretty much over. Obama will be the nominee. This is a clear signal, though, that he needs to connect with this group. The sooner he can start doing that, the better off he will be. Otherwise, he is leaving a door open for McCain to have a shot in what seems to be an anti-GOP year.

Up next: Hawaii for the GOP on May 17th.

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Comment by James Rickard

May 14th 2008 22:21
I grew up down there and the results come as no surprise. I'm surprised people even voted--they had the choice of a Black man or a woman. I could have predicted that ANY white person would win. After that its a MAN. Hillary won by default.

Comment by PopulistConservative

May 15th 2008 00:07
Maybe so, James, but Obama is having trouble with working-class whites in almost every state now. Truthfully, he did much better before Wright showed up and Obama stammered and stuttered through his response to that. IIRC, Obama got 40% of the white vote in my state, Georgia. Then, Wright showed up and Obama came out with that speech about race. In the speech, Obama said he wanted to have a "discussion about race". It looks like he's getting it now. I guess you have to be careful what you ask for.

Comment by S.L. Bradish

May 15th 2008 01:13
Playing the race card can be a double-edgee sword, PopCon. Obama had gotten the sharp edge among the white working class while Hillary has not won much of an advantage from her pandering. The two of them could conceivable annoy the electorate enough to lose the election. We can only hope....

Comment by Lester Caudill

May 15th 2008 03:55
The Dems are coming to my State on May 20th, you think it might be a replay of WV?

Rev. Wright has hurt Obama, but he still will be the Dems nominee, but will he be able to get enough of the white working class vote in Nov?

Can he win the swing states? I hope not, I just can't get used to the Idea of having a Liberal Elitist Racist Jerk for President.

You can bet on one thing Howard Dean will cry race bating in the General election, but will if fly?

Comment by PopulistConservative

May 15th 2008 03:59
Hi, SL. Yeah, the race issue is front and center in this election. You know it's a weird election season when the Clintons and Geraldine Ferraro are being called out for "racist" comments.

Comment by PopulistConservative

May 15th 2008 04:11
Hi, Lester. I don't see why Kentucky would play out any differently from WV. Post-Wright, many voters just seem to have some doubts about Obama and how he really feels about whites, rural voters, and even America.

I think Obama can win some swing states. He doesn't need a majority of white, working-class voters. He just needs to win some percentage of them (I don't know what that percentage is). He's bringing a LOT of new voters to the polls. For each one of those, that's one less he needs from the old Democratic constituency. Also, a number of conservatives are disgusted by the GOP or even McCain. If enough of those cross over to vote for Obama or just stay home, it will be a landslide in November.

If Dean (or others) starts crying about racism, I think it will hurt Obama more than help him. To Obama's credit, he tried to transcend race. He rarely mentioned it. Wright pushed the issue to the forefront, though. Then Obama had to address it. At that point, it became a significant issue in the primaries.

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