Trouble for Obama?
September 14th 2011 17:18
Interpreting results from special elections can be daunting. Turnout is vital, and local issues can play a larger role than normal. With that being said, yesterday's special elections could spell trouble for the Democrats and, specifically, Obama:
Here's a clue as to what was driving those results (especially in NY-9):
According to CQ, Obama won NY-9 by 9 percentage points in 2008. NV-2 was virtually even in 2008 with McCain eking out a win. The GOP candidate won by 8 percentage points in NY-9 last night and by 18 percentage points in NV-2. That's a 17 point swing in NY-9 and an 18 point swing in NV-2. Factoring out any muddying factors, that's a consistent trouncing in two very different districts. It appears that voters were using the elections as a referendum on Obama. That's not good for Obama's prospects in 2012.
If last night's elections are a harbinger of things to come, he's in big trouble. His only hope is that the economic indicators start to significantly improve. If they don't, he'll have to find a new place to live after November's election.
The Democratic Party’s rare loss of a congressional seat in its urban heartland Tuesday, accompanied by a blowout defeat in a Nevada special election, marked the latest in a string of demoralizing setbacks that threatened to deepen the party’s crisis of confidence and raise concerns about President Barack Obama’s political fortunes.
Here's a clue as to what was driving those results (especially in NY-9):
Even before the polls closed, the recriminations — something short of panic, and considerably more than mere grumbling — had begun. On a high-level campaign conference call Tuesday afternoon, Democratic donors and strategists commiserated over their disappointment in Obama. A source on the call described the mood as “awful.”
“People feel betrayed, disappointed, furious, disgusted, hopeless,” said the source.
“People feel betrayed, disappointed, furious, disgusted, hopeless,” said the source.
According to CQ, Obama won NY-9 by 9 percentage points in 2008. NV-2 was virtually even in 2008 with McCain eking out a win. The GOP candidate won by 8 percentage points in NY-9 last night and by 18 percentage points in NV-2. That's a 17 point swing in NY-9 and an 18 point swing in NV-2. Factoring out any muddying factors, that's a consistent trouncing in two very different districts. It appears that voters were using the elections as a referendum on Obama. That's not good for Obama's prospects in 2012.
If last night's elections are a harbinger of things to come, he's in big trouble. His only hope is that the economic indicators start to significantly improve. If they don't, he'll have to find a new place to live after November's election.
| 73 |
| Vote |
subscribe to this blog







Comment by S.L.
The Political Brief
The latest election results are encouraging, I must say. It looks like lots of voters have finally awakened... hopefully in time.
Comment by PopulistConservative
Angry Electorate
Comment by RickB_GA
Comment by Michael 2
Zed Power
PoetrymanPoetry
National Poetry Month
Go Green or Go Home
Energy Independence Now!
Digital Dreams
Well at least the Wall Street thieves who crashed the economy have been well paid and the illegal aliens are fully employed!
Comment by PopulistConservative
Angry Electorate
Comment by PopulistConservative
Angry Electorate