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Trouble for Obama?

September 14th 2011 17:18
Interpreting results from special elections can be daunting. Turnout is vital, and local issues can play a larger role than normal. With that being said, yesterday's special elections could spell trouble for the Democrats and, specifically, Obama:

The Democratic Party’s rare loss of a congressional seat in its urban heartland Tuesday, accompanied by a blowout defeat in a Nevada special election, marked the latest in a string of demoralizing setbacks that threatened to deepen the party’s crisis of confidence and raise concerns about President Barack Obama’s political fortunes.

Here's a clue as to what was driving those results (especially in NY-9):

Even before the polls closed, the recriminations — something short of panic, and considerably more than mere grumbling — had begun. On a high-level campaign conference call Tuesday afternoon, Democratic donors and strategists commiserated over their disappointment in Obama. A source on the call described the mood as “awful.”

“People feel betrayed, disappointed, furious, disgusted, hopeless,” said the source.

According to CQ, Obama won NY-9 by 9 percentage points in 2008. NV-2 was virtually even in 2008 with McCain eking out a win. The GOP candidate won by 8 percentage points in NY-9 last night and by 18 percentage points in NV-2. That's a 17 point swing in NY-9 and an 18 point swing in NV-2. Factoring out any muddying factors, that's a consistent trouncing in two very different districts. It appears that voters were using the elections as a referendum on Obama. That's not good for Obama's prospects in 2012.

If last night's elections are a harbinger of things to come, he's in big trouble. His only hope is that the economic indicators start to significantly improve. If they don't, he'll have to find a new place to live after November's election.


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6 Comments. [ Add A Comment ]

Comment by S.L.

September 14th 2011 17:36
I'm quite sure that some other country will welcome him with open arms, PopCon. Cuba, Venezuela, Kenya and Iran leap to mind. It would be so nice to watch him "lead" those countries the way he has misled ours.

The latest election results are encouraging, I must say. It looks like lots of voters have finally awakened... hopefully in time.

Comment by PopulistConservative

September 14th 2011 20:30
I read today that Europe still loves them. He's not running their economy over a cliff, so they still think he's the cat's meow. Maybe he can move there.

Comment by RickB_GA

September 14th 2011 23:14
When Obama leaves office, hopefully in January, 2013, he will spend all his time reading from teleprompters and getting paid a fortune to do it. On top of that, the taxpayer will foot the bill for his security as he doddles about the country continuing to think he is the greatest thing to happen to mankind since sliced bread. He just doesn't get it! But I guess that is because his only job in life was "community organizer".

Comment by Michael 2

September 15th 2011 00:21
You spend $4 trillion and the unemployment level goes up and we lose AAA rating.

Well at least the Wall Street thieves who crashed the economy have been well paid and the illegal aliens are fully employed!


Comment by PopulistConservative

September 15th 2011 02:11
Unfortunately, Rick, the whole of the US is more than a "community." He has been disastrous at organizing a semblance of a recovery in this nation. Of course, I suspect he wasn't good at organizing communities, either.

Comment by PopulistConservative

September 15th 2011 02:12
That's true, Michael. Some folks are getting ahead. It's just not the legal workers on Main Street.

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