Super Tuesday post-mortem
February 8th 2008 03:13
Super Tuesday was held this week. Here are the winners by state:
Democrats --
Clinton: AR, AZ, CA, MA, NY, NJ, OK, TN
Obama: AK, AL, CT, CO, DE, GA, ID, IL, KS, MN, MO, ND, UT
Republicans --
Huckabee: AL, AR, GA, TN, WV
McCain: AZ, CA, CT, DE, IL, MO, NJ, NY, OK
Romney: CO, MA, MN, MT, ND, UT
Takeaways --
For the Democrats, Obama won more states, but the delegate race is still very tight. Neither Clinton nor Obama is close to winning the nomination. Keep an eye on the issue of the superdelegates. They will have an enormous amount of power in a close race and could influence the outcome one way or another. This is already rising as an issue of concern for some prominent party insiders. If superdelegates opt to vote against the clear desires of their states' voters, there could be a significant amount of division within the party. I still suspect that the Democrats will find a way to overcome any hard feelings or animosity in November, but the closer the race is, the more amplified these differences will become.
For the GOP, a big surprise was Huckabee's strength. While he appears to be a regional candidate, he is excelling in a region that's critical for the Republican Party. Huckabee may not be able to win, but he is the favorite of a number of GOP voters. Romney won six states on Tuesday, but he was unable to break through. It's certainly possible that Huckabee's presence has drawn conservative voters away from Romney (or vice versa), but the former governor of Massachusetts has always been a flawed candidate. Even with a thinned-out field, he has just not been able to get over the top.
McCain won more states than Huckabee or Romney. More importantly, he won in a number of winner-take-all states. Also noteworthy, however, was McCain's continued inability to win over conservatives. He has been winning by getting a plurality in a three-way race -- and he has done so on the backs of liberal and moderate Republicans. Nevertheless, McCain had a huge delegate lead coming out of Super Tuesday and was the clear frontrunner.
That brings us to today. Romney, after evaluating his position, has now decided to suspend his campaign. With that, the GOP race is pretty much over. McCain will (barring catastrophic circumstances) become the nominee. The big question now is whether McCain can win over the support of his own party's voters. He was loudly booed at one point during today's CPAC conference. It'll be interesting to see whether he can appeal to conservatives in the GOP without losing support of moderates and independents. I think he's going to have a hard time in an election that was already going to be an uphill battle for the GOP candidate.
Up next (this weekend): Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington, and Maine (Democrats); Kansas, Louisiana, and Washington (GOP)
Democrats --
Clinton: AR, AZ, CA, MA, NY, NJ, OK, TN
Obama: AK, AL, CT, CO, DE, GA, ID, IL, KS, MN, MO, ND, UT
Republicans --
Huckabee: AL, AR, GA, TN, WV
McCain: AZ, CA, CT, DE, IL, MO, NJ, NY, OK
Romney: CO, MA, MN, MT, ND, UT
Takeaways --
For the Democrats, Obama won more states, but the delegate race is still very tight. Neither Clinton nor Obama is close to winning the nomination. Keep an eye on the issue of the superdelegates. They will have an enormous amount of power in a close race and could influence the outcome one way or another. This is already rising as an issue of concern for some prominent party insiders. If superdelegates opt to vote against the clear desires of their states' voters, there could be a significant amount of division within the party. I still suspect that the Democrats will find a way to overcome any hard feelings or animosity in November, but the closer the race is, the more amplified these differences will become.
For the GOP, a big surprise was Huckabee's strength. While he appears to be a regional candidate, he is excelling in a region that's critical for the Republican Party. Huckabee may not be able to win, but he is the favorite of a number of GOP voters. Romney won six states on Tuesday, but he was unable to break through. It's certainly possible that Huckabee's presence has drawn conservative voters away from Romney (or vice versa), but the former governor of Massachusetts has always been a flawed candidate. Even with a thinned-out field, he has just not been able to get over the top.
McCain won more states than Huckabee or Romney. More importantly, he won in a number of winner-take-all states. Also noteworthy, however, was McCain's continued inability to win over conservatives. He has been winning by getting a plurality in a three-way race -- and he has done so on the backs of liberal and moderate Republicans. Nevertheless, McCain had a huge delegate lead coming out of Super Tuesday and was the clear frontrunner.
That brings us to today. Romney, after evaluating his position, has now decided to suspend his campaign. With that, the GOP race is pretty much over. McCain will (barring catastrophic circumstances) become the nominee. The big question now is whether McCain can win over the support of his own party's voters. He was loudly booed at one point during today's CPAC conference. It'll be interesting to see whether he can appeal to conservatives in the GOP without losing support of moderates and independents. I think he's going to have a hard time in an election that was already going to be an uphill battle for the GOP candidate.
Up next (this weekend): Louisiana, Nebraska, Washington, and Maine (Democrats); Kansas, Louisiana, and Washington (GOP)
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