Recent special elections
March 19th 2008 06:28
Two recent special elections could be harbingers of things to come in November. In both cases, the Democrats got the better of the GOP.
On March 11th, Indiana's 7th congressional district conducted a special election in order to replace Democrat Julia Carson (who died in December). Her grandson, Andre Carson, won the election. It wasn't completely unexpected since the Democrats had maintained control of the seat for a while. Still, the GOP felt they had a decent shot of picking up a victory. In the end, though, the margin of victory was comparable to previous margins achieved by Mrs. Carson. The GOP couldn't find the winning formula and were unable to flip the district.
Illinois' 14th district, however, was a different situation altogether. Dennis Hastert (R-IL), former Speaker of the House, had held the seat for a long time. He stepped down and the special election to fill the seat was conducted on March 8th. This district had been reliably conservative in the past, but things didn't go as planned and Democrat Bill Foster beat Republican candidate Jim Oberweis 53% to 47%. The loss was a kick in the gut for the GOP. This district's seat should have been safe. This contest represented a PR nightmare for the Republicans. The national organizations paid a great deal of attention to the race and the Democrats achieved a significant coup with the victory.
So what does this mean? Well, if these two elections are any indication, the GOP is in trouble. Not only will the Republicans have little or no chance of picking up seats, they will be hard-pressed to defend many of the seats they currently have. If a "safe" seat such as the one in Illinois' 14th district was up for grabs, then a LOT of Republican seats could be up for grabs. We've seen again and again how the Democratic voters have greatly outnumbered the Republican voters in this primary season. If that trend continues, the November elections could result in a bloodletting of Biblical proportions.
On March 11th, Indiana's 7th congressional district conducted a special election in order to replace Democrat Julia Carson (who died in December). Her grandson, Andre Carson, won the election. It wasn't completely unexpected since the Democrats had maintained control of the seat for a while. Still, the GOP felt they had a decent shot of picking up a victory. In the end, though, the margin of victory was comparable to previous margins achieved by Mrs. Carson. The GOP couldn't find the winning formula and were unable to flip the district.
Illinois' 14th district, however, was a different situation altogether. Dennis Hastert (R-IL), former Speaker of the House, had held the seat for a long time. He stepped down and the special election to fill the seat was conducted on March 8th. This district had been reliably conservative in the past, but things didn't go as planned and Democrat Bill Foster beat Republican candidate Jim Oberweis 53% to 47%. The loss was a kick in the gut for the GOP. This district's seat should have been safe. This contest represented a PR nightmare for the Republicans. The national organizations paid a great deal of attention to the race and the Democrats achieved a significant coup with the victory.
So what does this mean? Well, if these two elections are any indication, the GOP is in trouble. Not only will the Republicans have little or no chance of picking up seats, they will be hard-pressed to defend many of the seats they currently have. If a "safe" seat such as the one in Illinois' 14th district was up for grabs, then a LOT of Republican seats could be up for grabs. We've seen again and again how the Democratic voters have greatly outnumbered the Republican voters in this primary season. If that trend continues, the November elections could result in a bloodletting of Biblical proportions.
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Comment by S.L. Bradish
Comment by PopulistConservative
Angry Electorate