Pennsylvania post-mortem
April 24th 2008 01:09
On Tuesday, Democratic and Republican primaries were held in Pennsylvania. The results were as follows:
Democrats --
Clinton won. She got 55% of the votes and Obama got 45%.
Republicans --
McCain, the only candidate still running, got 73% of the votes. Ron Paul got 16% and Mike Huckabee got 11%.
Takeaways:
Democrats --
Clinton desperately needed to win and she did. She needed to win decisively and her margin of victory was pretty substantial. As we've seen in other states, Hillary did better with white voters, older voters, and less wealthy voters. Obama continues to draw a lot of support from African-Americans, younger voters, and more affluent voters. Obama greatly outspent Hillary in advertising in Pennsylvania. That may have helped him to make the race closer, but it didn't give him the victory. One key point is that this primary was the first one since the revelations about Obama's pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright. It was also the first primary since Obama made his inelegant remarks about rural voters being bitter and clinging to God, guns, and hatred of immigrants. While exit polls suggested that those issues didn't matter, it's indisputable that Obama's momentum slowed and even stopped when those unforced errors hit the public airwaves. Did they make him lose? Maybe not. However, I suspect that they kept him from having a chance at winning.
Republicans --
No change from the previous states. McCain won, but more than 25% of the voters were still motivated enough to go out and vote AGAINST the only person still in the race. There are rumblings that McCain may be solidifying the Republican base, but he still greatly inspires dispassion amongst many conservatives (oxymoronic though that may be).
Up next (excluding Guam): Indiana and North Carolina on May 6th.
Democrats --
Clinton won. She got 55% of the votes and Obama got 45%.
Republicans --
McCain, the only candidate still running, got 73% of the votes. Ron Paul got 16% and Mike Huckabee got 11%.
Takeaways:
Democrats --
Clinton desperately needed to win and she did. She needed to win decisively and her margin of victory was pretty substantial. As we've seen in other states, Hillary did better with white voters, older voters, and less wealthy voters. Obama continues to draw a lot of support from African-Americans, younger voters, and more affluent voters. Obama greatly outspent Hillary in advertising in Pennsylvania. That may have helped him to make the race closer, but it didn't give him the victory. One key point is that this primary was the first one since the revelations about Obama's pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright. It was also the first primary since Obama made his inelegant remarks about rural voters being bitter and clinging to God, guns, and hatred of immigrants. While exit polls suggested that those issues didn't matter, it's indisputable that Obama's momentum slowed and even stopped when those unforced errors hit the public airwaves. Did they make him lose? Maybe not. However, I suspect that they kept him from having a chance at winning.
Republicans --
No change from the previous states. McCain won, but more than 25% of the voters were still motivated enough to go out and vote AGAINST the only person still in the race. There are rumblings that McCain may be solidifying the Republican base, but he still greatly inspires dispassion amongst many conservatives (oxymoronic though that may be).
Up next (excluding Guam): Indiana and North Carolina on May 6th.
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Angry Electorate