OH, RI, TX, and VT post-mortems
March 8th 2008 06:02
On Tuesday, primaries/caucuses were held in Ohio, Rhode Island, Texas, and Vermont. The results were as follows:
Democrats --
Clinton won in Ohio and Rhode Island and she won the primary in Texas (which has both a primary and a caucus). Obama won in Vermont and it appears that he has won the Texas caucus.
Republicans --
McCain won all four Republican primaries.
Takeaways:
Democrats --
Clinton seemed to get her mojo back. She had nearly been written off, but she scored big victories in the crucial Ohio and Texas primaries. She went on the attack against Obama and it worked this time. However, after you factor in the apparent Texas caucus victory for Obama, it appears that Clinton will only get a net gain of a few delegates. As a result, Obama still has the lead in delegates. However, the biggest "win" that Clinton gained on Tuesday was that she is still standing. Furthermore, the momentum has marginally swung back in her favor for the time being.
The bigger story after Tuesday is this: It appears likely that neither Clinton nor Obama can win with only pledged delegates (even if the Florida and Michigan primaries are redone). Unless someone drops out or they make some type of deal, the final decision will come down to the superdelegates. That's right. The Democratic Party will decide its nominee through a decidedly undemocratic process. The voters will have spoken...and then the party's elites and power-brokers will sit down and decide the winner. How will the superdelegates vote? What criteria will they use to make that decision? Only time will tell. It should be fascinating to see what happens, though.
Republicans --
Huckabee dropped out. McCain is officially the GOP nominee. He can now start focusing on the general election. That's a definite advantage. Not only can he concentrate on raising money for the November run, but he can also start sharpening his rhetoric and continue targeting both Clinton and Obama in stump speeches. Still, McCain has a huge uphill climb. The GOP brand is badly damaged and McCain still is not popular with the base of the Republican Party.
Up next (excluding Guam): Wyoming for the Democrats
Democrats --
Clinton won in Ohio and Rhode Island and she won the primary in Texas (which has both a primary and a caucus). Obama won in Vermont and it appears that he has won the Texas caucus.
Republicans --
McCain won all four Republican primaries.
Takeaways:
Democrats --
Clinton seemed to get her mojo back. She had nearly been written off, but she scored big victories in the crucial Ohio and Texas primaries. She went on the attack against Obama and it worked this time. However, after you factor in the apparent Texas caucus victory for Obama, it appears that Clinton will only get a net gain of a few delegates. As a result, Obama still has the lead in delegates. However, the biggest "win" that Clinton gained on Tuesday was that she is still standing. Furthermore, the momentum has marginally swung back in her favor for the time being.
The bigger story after Tuesday is this: It appears likely that neither Clinton nor Obama can win with only pledged delegates (even if the Florida and Michigan primaries are redone). Unless someone drops out or they make some type of deal, the final decision will come down to the superdelegates. That's right. The Democratic Party will decide its nominee through a decidedly undemocratic process. The voters will have spoken...and then the party's elites and power-brokers will sit down and decide the winner. How will the superdelegates vote? What criteria will they use to make that decision? Only time will tell. It should be fascinating to see what happens, though.
Republicans --
Huckabee dropped out. McCain is officially the GOP nominee. He can now start focusing on the general election. That's a definite advantage. Not only can he concentrate on raising money for the November run, but he can also start sharpening his rhetoric and continue targeting both Clinton and Obama in stump speeches. Still, McCain has a huge uphill climb. The GOP brand is badly damaged and McCain still is not popular with the base of the Republican Party.
Up next (excluding Guam): Wyoming for the Democrats
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Comment by S.L. Bradish