Nevada (D, R) and South Carolina (R) post-mortems
January 21st 2008 23:51
On Saturday, there were caucuses/primaries in Nevada (for the Dems and the GOP) and in South Carolina (for the GOP). In Nevada, Hillary Clinton won a hard-fought contest on the Democratic side while Mitt Romney won in a blowout for the Republicans. McCain edged out Huckabee in South Carolina's Republican primary.
In terms of takeaways, I think that race/gender identity politics is continuing to play a big role for the Democrats. Hillary gets a significant share of women voters and Obama is getting most of the African-American voters. In Nevada, there was a new dynamic added in: The Hispanic voter. It was believed that Obama could do okay with Hispanics because he got the endorsement of the largely Hispanic Culinary Union. However, reports on the ground indicate that many union members went against their union's endorsement and voted for Hillary. In the end, Hillary did much better with Hispanic voters than Obama did.
So what does this mean? Well, it may not amount to much once someone pulls ahead. It's likely that the different groups will coalesce around that candidate and stay under the Democratic tent. However, if the candidates and their surrogates continue to use identity politics to get an advantage, they run the risk of angering or alienating some of their natural constituents. Again, I do think that the groups will "make nice" once a candidate is selected, but it could get pretty ugly before that happens. We'll have to see if there are any residual effects of this no-holds-barred style of politicking.
For Republicans, the picture remains muddled. Romney won in Nevada, but his victory was fueled (at least in part) by enthusiastic Mormon supporters and by the fact that no one else really challenged him in the state. In South Carolina, Huckabee's inability to win a southern state with a high percentage of Evangelicals was a little surprising. Likewise, Fred Thompson had really focused on South Carolina and he did not do well. The media seems eager to name McCain the frontrunner, but he is still drawing his biggest support from moderates and crossover Democrats. He is not doing nearly as well with conservatives/Republicans. With upcoming primaries being limited only to Republican voters, I suspect that he will still face problems.
Up next: The Democrats face off in South Carolina on Saturday, the 26th.
In terms of takeaways, I think that race/gender identity politics is continuing to play a big role for the Democrats. Hillary gets a significant share of women voters and Obama is getting most of the African-American voters. In Nevada, there was a new dynamic added in: The Hispanic voter. It was believed that Obama could do okay with Hispanics because he got the endorsement of the largely Hispanic Culinary Union. However, reports on the ground indicate that many union members went against their union's endorsement and voted for Hillary. In the end, Hillary did much better with Hispanic voters than Obama did.
So what does this mean? Well, it may not amount to much once someone pulls ahead. It's likely that the different groups will coalesce around that candidate and stay under the Democratic tent. However, if the candidates and their surrogates continue to use identity politics to get an advantage, they run the risk of angering or alienating some of their natural constituents. Again, I do think that the groups will "make nice" once a candidate is selected, but it could get pretty ugly before that happens. We'll have to see if there are any residual effects of this no-holds-barred style of politicking.
For Republicans, the picture remains muddled. Romney won in Nevada, but his victory was fueled (at least in part) by enthusiastic Mormon supporters and by the fact that no one else really challenged him in the state. In South Carolina, Huckabee's inability to win a southern state with a high percentage of Evangelicals was a little surprising. Likewise, Fred Thompson had really focused on South Carolina and he did not do well. The media seems eager to name McCain the frontrunner, but he is still drawing his biggest support from moderates and crossover Democrats. He is not doing nearly as well with conservatives/Republicans. With upcoming primaries being limited only to Republican voters, I suspect that he will still face problems.
Up next: The Democrats face off in South Carolina on Saturday, the 26th.
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Comment by S.L. Bradish
No surprise that Hillary did well with Hispanics. She couldn't decide whether or not to give illegals driving licenses, remember? Maybe they think if they vote for her, she'll go their way.
Comment by PopulistConservative
Angry Electorate
I don't like McCain. Yes, he's a war hero, but he loves stabbing conservatives in the back (all in the name of "reaching across the aisle").
Hillary and Obama were both pandering in the extreme to those who favor amnesty. It's disgusting. They should be concerned about American citizens and those who follow our laws. Catering to illegal aliens is ridiculous -- especially when our economy is starting to greatly affect our own nation's poorest people.