Nader revisited
March 23rd 2008 22:36
In a recent post, I opined that Ralph Nader's presence in the 2008 race wouldn't matter. He did, by most accounts, affect the outcome of the 2000 race. However, his vote totals dropped off dramatically in 2004. With the Democratic voters seemingly satisfied with their candidates this time around, I figured that Nader (who is quite liberal and would appeal more to Democrats than Republicans) wouldn't be able to peel off many votes this fall. Nevertheless, a new Zogby poll shows that Nader could impact the race:
If Nader does throw the race to the GOP, the Democratic Party will be apoplectic. After eight years of having a Republican in the White House, they are desperate to regain the presidency. Losing to McCain in a head-to-head contest would be bad enough, but losing to the Republicans AGAIN because of the presence of Nader (a fellow liberal) could result in an absolute meltdown within the DLC and the DNC. If that happens, I would expect to see loud calls for electoral reform and the buttressing/fortressing of the two-party system. The wailing and gnashing of teeth would echo throughout the halls of Congress.
Will it happen? Will Nader spoil the Democrats' plans for retaking the White House? I still don't think so. Zogby isn't exactly the most reliable polling organization. I recall that they showed Romney leading in the California GOP primary the night before the election. McCain wound up winning by a large margin. Also, Zogby was wildly wrong in the New Hampshire Democratic primary. Zogby is sort of like the Sylvia Browne of political polling. Still, if some of the Clinton or Obama supporters are sufficiently angry when their candidate ultimately loses out, Nader's support could rise and he could make a decisive difference in November. If that happens, a newly-elected McCain may have to put Nader in the federal witness protection program because the Democratic officials and voters around the country would be on the warpath.
The introduction of long-time activist Ralph Nader into the mix is having an effect on the race, as he wins enough support to make a difference, the poll shows. Nader entered the race recently, charging that there is little difference between the Republican and Democratic parties and their presidential candidates. Using the same argument eight years ago, his presence on the ballot in Florida may well have tipped the presidential election away from Democrat Al Gore and in favor of George W. Bush. His run four years ago yielded less dramatic results, but the political atmosphere has changed since 2004, and may be more favorable for him again, the Zogby survey shows.
If Nader does throw the race to the GOP, the Democratic Party will be apoplectic. After eight years of having a Republican in the White House, they are desperate to regain the presidency. Losing to McCain in a head-to-head contest would be bad enough, but losing to the Republicans AGAIN because of the presence of Nader (a fellow liberal) could result in an absolute meltdown within the DLC and the DNC. If that happens, I would expect to see loud calls for electoral reform and the buttressing/fortressing of the two-party system. The wailing and gnashing of teeth would echo throughout the halls of Congress.
Will it happen? Will Nader spoil the Democrats' plans for retaking the White House? I still don't think so. Zogby isn't exactly the most reliable polling organization. I recall that they showed Romney leading in the California GOP primary the night before the election. McCain wound up winning by a large margin. Also, Zogby was wildly wrong in the New Hampshire Democratic primary. Zogby is sort of like the Sylvia Browne of political polling. Still, if some of the Clinton or Obama supporters are sufficiently angry when their candidate ultimately loses out, Nader's support could rise and he could make a decisive difference in November. If that happens, a newly-elected McCain may have to put Nader in the federal witness protection program because the Democratic officials and voters around the country would be on the warpath.
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Comment by S.L. Bradish
I still think it will be a Hillary/Obama vs. McCain situation. They're both too popular to give up and will have to run together in the hope that their combined strength can defeat McCain. Still no idea who McCain will choose as his running mate, although there are plenty of excellent possibilities still out there. His choice could either make or break his chances.
Comment by PopulistConservative
Angry Electorate