Nader in, Bloomberg is not in
March 3rd 2008 02:56
In the last week, there have been two intriguing announcements about the 2008 presidential race. Ralph Nader announced that he would run and Michael Bloomberg announced that he would not run.
I blogged over a year ago about the possibility of yet another Nader run. I thought that it would only hurt the Democrats and I still think that. I really don't see many disgruntled conservatives going for Nader. There are plenty of disgruntled conservatives, but they are generally to the right of McCain. Nader is way left of McCain in terms of his political ideology. As I stated last February, though, I don't think Nader will make a difference. He got about 3% of the vote in 2000 (when he did make a HUGE difference), but he got less than 1% of the vote in 2004. I think he'll be hard-pressed to reach his 2004 totals this fall. Democratic voters seem to be happy with one or more of their choices. I can't see a significant number of them choosing Nader over Hillary or Obama.
Bloomberg is a smart man. He didn't have a chance of winning the presidency and he knew it. The only way his candidacy would've made sense is if the GOP nominated a far-right and/or polarizing candidate AND the Democrats nominated a far-left and/or polarizing candidate. Only then would the dissatisfied middle have been willing to consider a third party candidate in the mold of Bloomberg. McCain, though, is considered by many conservatives to be a liberal to moderate Republican while the two remaining Democratic candidates seem to have broad appeal for Democratic-leaning voters. There just wasn't any room for Bloomberg to run. The only significant bloc of "free agent" voters is more conservative than McCain -- and those folks would not find Bloomberg appealing.
In summary, Nader's in but it won't matter. Bloomberg's not in because his candidacy would not have mattered. This year could've presented a good opportunity for a third-party candidate to run. There is broad disgust for our federal government and our elected officials. However, McCain's resurgence squeezed the middle. When you combine that with the excitement of Democratic voters for their choices, it's evident that the door has closed once again on the possibility of having a viable third-party candidate run for the presidency.
I blogged over a year ago about the possibility of yet another Nader run. I thought that it would only hurt the Democrats and I still think that. I really don't see many disgruntled conservatives going for Nader. There are plenty of disgruntled conservatives, but they are generally to the right of McCain. Nader is way left of McCain in terms of his political ideology. As I stated last February, though, I don't think Nader will make a difference. He got about 3% of the vote in 2000 (when he did make a HUGE difference), but he got less than 1% of the vote in 2004. I think he'll be hard-pressed to reach his 2004 totals this fall. Democratic voters seem to be happy with one or more of their choices. I can't see a significant number of them choosing Nader over Hillary or Obama.
Bloomberg is a smart man. He didn't have a chance of winning the presidency and he knew it. The only way his candidacy would've made sense is if the GOP nominated a far-right and/or polarizing candidate AND the Democrats nominated a far-left and/or polarizing candidate. Only then would the dissatisfied middle have been willing to consider a third party candidate in the mold of Bloomberg. McCain, though, is considered by many conservatives to be a liberal to moderate Republican while the two remaining Democratic candidates seem to have broad appeal for Democratic-leaning voters. There just wasn't any room for Bloomberg to run. The only significant bloc of "free agent" voters is more conservative than McCain -- and those folks would not find Bloomberg appealing.
In summary, Nader's in but it won't matter. Bloomberg's not in because his candidacy would not have mattered. This year could've presented a good opportunity for a third-party candidate to run. There is broad disgust for our federal government and our elected officials. However, McCain's resurgence squeezed the middle. When you combine that with the excitement of Democratic voters for their choices, it's evident that the door has closed once again on the possibility of having a viable third-party candidate run for the presidency.
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Comment by S.L. Bradish
Comment by PopulistConservative
Angry Electorate
I really don't think the country has moved left as some do. I just think there is a huge anti-incumbent sentiment year (as illustrated by the "change" mantra). Of course, with Bush driving the ship for the last few years, the GOP will get the lion's share of the blame. However, the Democratically-controlled House and Senate have even lower approval ratings than Dubya.
Comment by S.L. Bradish