KY and OR post-mortems
May 21st 2008 20:09
On Tuesday, Democratic and Republican primaries were held in Kentucky and Oregon. The results were as follows:
Democrats --
Kentucky: Clinton 65%, Obama 30%
Oregon: Obama 59%, Clinton 41%
Republicans --
Kentucky: McCain 72%, Not McCain 28%
Oregon: McCain 85%, Not McCain 15%
Takeaways:
Democrats --
No new themes emerged. Obama is still struggling to win over white, working-class voters -- especially in the South and the Midwest. He did fare better with white voters in Oregon than he did in Kentucky. However, voters in Oregon tend to be more liberal than voters in Kentucky -- and Obama does better with more liberal voters. Clinton did achieve a small net gain of pledged delegates when you combine the results from both states. However, it wasn't nearly enough. She's not yet mathematically eliminated, but she won't win this contest.
One milestone was reached yesterday. Obama now has won a majority of the pledged delegates. While the contest will still be decided by the superdelegates, having a majority of the pledged delegates is significant because the superdelegates would have to overturn the will of the people in order to make Clinton the nominee. If that happened, the Democratic Party would face open revolt from the voters.
Republicans --
Again, there is nothing new to report. McCain, having secured enough delegates for the nomination, is still winning against an all-but-nonexistent field. However, a number of voters are still motivated to go out and vote against him in order to express their discontent.
Up next: Idaho for the GOP on May 27th.
Democrats --
Kentucky: Clinton 65%, Obama 30%
Oregon: Obama 59%, Clinton 41%
Republicans --
Kentucky: McCain 72%, Not McCain 28%
Oregon: McCain 85%, Not McCain 15%
Takeaways:
Democrats --
No new themes emerged. Obama is still struggling to win over white, working-class voters -- especially in the South and the Midwest. He did fare better with white voters in Oregon than he did in Kentucky. However, voters in Oregon tend to be more liberal than voters in Kentucky -- and Obama does better with more liberal voters. Clinton did achieve a small net gain of pledged delegates when you combine the results from both states. However, it wasn't nearly enough. She's not yet mathematically eliminated, but she won't win this contest.
One milestone was reached yesterday. Obama now has won a majority of the pledged delegates. While the contest will still be decided by the superdelegates, having a majority of the pledged delegates is significant because the superdelegates would have to overturn the will of the people in order to make Clinton the nominee. If that happened, the Democratic Party would face open revolt from the voters.
Republicans --
Again, there is nothing new to report. McCain, having secured enough delegates for the nomination, is still winning against an all-but-nonexistent field. However, a number of voters are still motivated to go out and vote against him in order to express their discontent.
Up next: Idaho for the GOP on May 27th.
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