Geopolitics
December 8th 2007 21:58
There have been some big political developments around the world in the last couple of weeks. As I watched them unfold, I thought about their implications for the US and the world. In this post, I'd like to address these events and provide my thoughts on each one.
(1) Russian election: Putin's party (and, thus, Putin) retains power
Russia, a large oil producer, has enjoyed renewed power on the world stage as a result of the rising price of oil. Vladimir Putin has used that platform to encourage Russian nationalism and to stand as a counterbalance to the US in world affairs. Putin was term-limited as president, but it's expected that he will retain a great deal of power after other members of his party take the reins. It's even suggested that he could become Prime Minister of Russia. There have been numerous outcries that the election wasn't fair, but it doesn't appear that those concerns will amount to anything.
As long as oil prices remain high, Russia (and Putin) will continue to stand against the US whenever Putin thinks it will benefit Russia. And Putin's grip on power, if it continues, could further derail democratic reforms in the former Soviet state.
(2) Venezuelan constitutional reform referendum fails
Hugo Chavez, also buoyed by high oil prices, has become increasingly noisy and belligerent of late. Last year, he repeatedly call Bush "the devil" from the UN floor. A couple of weeks ago, he angered Spain's Prime Minister and its King (who eventually told him to shut up) with a number of comments. Then, just recently, he severed ties with Colombia after something he did angered them and they responded. In this referendum, he sought to tighten his grip on power by doing away with term limits. The vote ultimately went against him. Word is now coming out, however, that he tried to steal the vote. The military leaders forced him to accept the people's will, though. Ultimately, they let him save face by announcing a result that was closer than the actual result.
Again, as oil prices remain high, Venezuela will be flush with cash and Chavez will be able to bluster about. With the rejection of his referendum, though, he will now be gone at the end of his current term. Hopefully, a moderating voice will emerge and the already shaky oil markets can breathe a sigh of relief.
(3) NIE report claims Iran stopped its nuclear weapons program in 2003
George W. Bush has been increasingly alarmist in his rhetoric on Iran throughout the year. Many talking heads in the US felt that he would bomb Iran before he left office in January of 2009. Now, though, the new NIE report has moved everybody back from the precipice in the ongoing standoff with Iran. Iran isn't off the hook, but a pre-emptive attack on Iran almost certainly won't happen in the near future.
The change in the US' assessment (when coupled with the intelligence failures in the run-up to the Iraq War) has hurt our credibility on such matters. George W. Bush, who was already a lame duck president, is now even more irrelevant on the world stage. This is good, though, for the Middle East. The last thing anybody wants right now is another war. Also, it should help stabilize oil prices because of the low likelihood of any military action in Iran.
Summary
I thought it was fascinating that these three events happened in rapid succession during the last couple of weeks. Each one has global implications for the world's economic and political stability. I'm a little concerned with the power being amassed by Vladimir Putin in Russia. However, Chavez's defeat and the new NIE report should help soothe jittery world markets. And with the US being tied up in Iraq and Afghanistan, the possibility of averting a conflict with Iran is certainly a very welcome prospect.
(1) Russian election: Putin's party (and, thus, Putin) retains power
Russia, a large oil producer, has enjoyed renewed power on the world stage as a result of the rising price of oil. Vladimir Putin has used that platform to encourage Russian nationalism and to stand as a counterbalance to the US in world affairs. Putin was term-limited as president, but it's expected that he will retain a great deal of power after other members of his party take the reins. It's even suggested that he could become Prime Minister of Russia. There have been numerous outcries that the election wasn't fair, but it doesn't appear that those concerns will amount to anything.
As long as oil prices remain high, Russia (and Putin) will continue to stand against the US whenever Putin thinks it will benefit Russia. And Putin's grip on power, if it continues, could further derail democratic reforms in the former Soviet state.
(2) Venezuelan constitutional reform referendum fails
Hugo Chavez, also buoyed by high oil prices, has become increasingly noisy and belligerent of late. Last year, he repeatedly call Bush "the devil" from the UN floor. A couple of weeks ago, he angered Spain's Prime Minister and its King (who eventually told him to shut up) with a number of comments. Then, just recently, he severed ties with Colombia after something he did angered them and they responded. In this referendum, he sought to tighten his grip on power by doing away with term limits. The vote ultimately went against him. Word is now coming out, however, that he tried to steal the vote. The military leaders forced him to accept the people's will, though. Ultimately, they let him save face by announcing a result that was closer than the actual result.
Again, as oil prices remain high, Venezuela will be flush with cash and Chavez will be able to bluster about. With the rejection of his referendum, though, he will now be gone at the end of his current term. Hopefully, a moderating voice will emerge and the already shaky oil markets can breathe a sigh of relief.
(3) NIE report claims Iran stopped its nuclear weapons program in 2003
George W. Bush has been increasingly alarmist in his rhetoric on Iran throughout the year. Many talking heads in the US felt that he would bomb Iran before he left office in January of 2009. Now, though, the new NIE report has moved everybody back from the precipice in the ongoing standoff with Iran. Iran isn't off the hook, but a pre-emptive attack on Iran almost certainly won't happen in the near future.
The change in the US' assessment (when coupled with the intelligence failures in the run-up to the Iraq War) has hurt our credibility on such matters. George W. Bush, who was already a lame duck president, is now even more irrelevant on the world stage. This is good, though, for the Middle East. The last thing anybody wants right now is another war. Also, it should help stabilize oil prices because of the low likelihood of any military action in Iran.
Summary
I thought it was fascinating that these three events happened in rapid succession during the last couple of weeks. Each one has global implications for the world's economic and political stability. I'm a little concerned with the power being amassed by Vladimir Putin in Russia. However, Chavez's defeat and the new NIE report should help soothe jittery world markets. And with the US being tied up in Iraq and Afghanistan, the possibility of averting a conflict with Iran is certainly a very welcome prospect.
| 82 |
| Vote |
subscribe to this blog
Comment by Lester Caudill
Round Politics
Comment by PopulistConservative
Angry Electorate
What are the feelings Russian people have towards the US? I haven't read anything about that. It does seem Putin, though, revels in rivalling the US and uses the US as a foil to advance his own agenda (which the US has probably done in the past regarding Russia).
I have seen the comments of folks like Kasparov who is crying out about the erosion of Democracy in Russia. He was recently arrested for protesting.