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Following the money

February 26th 2008 23:41
A recent New York Times graphic provided a detailed breakdown of the financial situation for the campaigns of Clinton, Obama, McCain, and Huckabee. If you're interested, take a look. Here are the most salient points that I culled from the summaries:

* The Democrats are outraising the Republicans by an ASTRONOMICAL amount. During the period from 1/1/07-1/31/08, Clinton and Obama both raised funds well in excess of $100 million. McCain, the GOP's presumptive nominee, only raised $41 million. What makes this even more startling is the fact that the GOP usually raises much more than the Democrats. That swing represents a rejection of the Republican brand and/or excitement about the Democratic candidates (probably both).

* Similarly, "money on hand" is much greater for the Democrats than it is for the Republicans. This makes sense based on the amount of money raised, but it means that the GOP will not be able to compete as well as or in as many markets as the Democrats in the months ahead (assuming, of course, that the fundraising trends do not change dramatically).

* What Mike Huckabee has done is truly remarkable. He won't win the GOP nomination, but he has really made his money go a long way. He has earned quite a few delegates and has outlasted almost the entire field while running a campaign held together by duct tape and rubber bands.

* The size of the donations is very telling. Clinton and McCain have a higher percentage of large-money donors while Obama and Huckabee appeal more to small-money donors. To me, this indicates a bigger appeal to the common "man on the street" for Obama and Huckabee (relatively speaking).

Money doesn't guarantee a victory. However, it does help signify support and viability. Based on the financial breakdown to date, it looks like the Democrats should win by a landslide in November.

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8 Comments. [ Add A Comment ]

Comment by S.L. Bradish

February 27th 2008 00:16
Well that cheers me up. Thanks, PopCon! What do you think about the chances of a third party candidate (not really Nader, but someone more viable...)

Comment by PopulistConservative

February 27th 2008 00:55
I don't think a third-party candidate could win -- especially if Obama gets the Dem nomination. I know there will be a lot of conservative votes that are "gettable" by a third-party candidate, but Obama will probably get all the more liberal voters. If it was McCain-Clinton, a third party may have a chance (although it would still be a long shot). Both are disliked by portions of their own parties.

I'm all for third-party candidates, though. I voted for Perot in 1992 and 1996. Then, like now, I was conservative but also disgusted with the GOP.

Comment by S.L. Bradish

February 27th 2008 01:36
Howard www.realcrash.com is worried about a possible Bloomberg candidacy. He has enough money... but probably not the votes...

Comment by PopulistConservative

February 27th 2008 01:47
I don't think Bloomberg will get in. There's not enough room for him. McCain is a moderate to liberal Republican and Obama has broad enough appeal to squeeze out a Bloomberg.

I like Lou Dobbs. He's one of the few paying attention to my biggest issues (trade, illegal immigration, fiscal matters, etc.). He won't get in, though. The system's just too rigged for a third party to really have a shot.

Comment by S.L. Bradish

February 27th 2008 01:58
I thought the 2-party system was too entrenched for a 3rd party to have a chance, but this election cycle is really strange and Howard seems convinced. Nobody seems to leap to the foreground...

Comment by PopulistConservative

February 27th 2008 02:54
I heard that Bloomberg would make as much as $1 billion of his personal fortune available for a presidential run (if he ran). I really think folks would greatly resent that if he jumped in and started spending four or five or six times as much as the others who have already been through a primary process. So besides the fact that I don't think Bloomberg has room to run (ideologically speaking), I also think there would be a backlash if he jumped in and tried to essentially buy the presidency.

Comment by S.L. Bradish

February 27th 2008 03:28
I hope you're right, PopCon. Bloomberg doesn't sound very appealing to me and I think his money might be a considerable disadvantage to him, all things considered. There doesn't seem to be anyone else leaping to the foreground of a third party. So it'll be one of the Big Three... It doesn't make a whole lot of difference which, sadly enough...

Comment by PopulistConservative

February 28th 2008 04:27
Bloomberg just made it official. He's not running:

Really Long Link

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