Florida post-mortem
February 1st 2008 14:36
The Florida primaries were held on Tuesday of this week. Because both parties in Florida moved their primary dates up without getting approval from the national political organizations, the number of delegates were reduced for both the Democrats and the GOP. The Democrats chose to strip Florida of all its delegates and the candidates agreed not to campaign there. The Republicans stripped the state of half its delegates. As a result, the Democratic primary was largely meaningless and the Republican primary was not as significant as it should have been.
The results showed Hillary Clinton winning in the Democratic primary. She got 50% of the votes, while Obama received 33%. Again, though, no delegates were at stake and no one campaigned in the state, so the victory for Clinton didn't really mean anything.
On the Republican side, there was a little more at stake. Even with half the delegates stripped, there were still 57 delegates that were up for grabs. And with Florida being a winner-take-all state, someone stood to pick up all 57 delegates. John McCain won with 36% of the vote and Romney finished second with 31%. Giuliani and Huckabee finished much farther behind in third and fourth places, respectively. This was McCain's first win in a closed Republican primary, so it was a pretty important victory for him.
I see four significant takeaways from these results.
* McCain's victory definitely gives him some momentum. He now leads in the overall delegate count and has gotten a bump in several state polls.
* Giuliani dropped out after his poor showing and he immediately endorsed McCain. McCain has also picked up endorsements from Arnold Schwarzeneggar and several others. While endorsements may not singlehandedly win elections for you, they definitely help in some cases.
* While McCain did win in Florida, he still is not winning a majority or plurality of self-described conservatives. He is getting most of his support from moderate and liberal voters. In the more conservative states, this could be a problem for him. And even if wins the nomination, a fractured or dispirited party may not rally around him.
* On the Democratic side, John Edwards dropped out of the race. He hasn't endorsed anyone yet, but he had a sizable following. If Clinton or Obama can successfully woo a lion's share of those who favored Edwards, it could provide a winning margin for either of them.
Up next: The Republican caucuses in Maine
The results showed Hillary Clinton winning in the Democratic primary. She got 50% of the votes, while Obama received 33%. Again, though, no delegates were at stake and no one campaigned in the state, so the victory for Clinton didn't really mean anything.
On the Republican side, there was a little more at stake. Even with half the delegates stripped, there were still 57 delegates that were up for grabs. And with Florida being a winner-take-all state, someone stood to pick up all 57 delegates. John McCain won with 36% of the vote and Romney finished second with 31%. Giuliani and Huckabee finished much farther behind in third and fourth places, respectively. This was McCain's first win in a closed Republican primary, so it was a pretty important victory for him.
I see four significant takeaways from these results.
* McCain's victory definitely gives him some momentum. He now leads in the overall delegate count and has gotten a bump in several state polls.
* Giuliani dropped out after his poor showing and he immediately endorsed McCain. McCain has also picked up endorsements from Arnold Schwarzeneggar and several others. While endorsements may not singlehandedly win elections for you, they definitely help in some cases.
* While McCain did win in Florida, he still is not winning a majority or plurality of self-described conservatives. He is getting most of his support from moderate and liberal voters. In the more conservative states, this could be a problem for him. And even if wins the nomination, a fractured or dispirited party may not rally around him.
* On the Democratic side, John Edwards dropped out of the race. He hasn't endorsed anyone yet, but he had a sizable following. If Clinton or Obama can successfully woo a lion's share of those who favored Edwards, it could provide a winning margin for either of them.
Up next: The Republican caucuses in Maine
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