DC, MD, and VA post-mortems
February 15th 2008 08:31
The DC, Maryland, and Virginia primaries were held this past Tuesday. The results were as follows:
Democrats --
Obama won all three by huge margins (by 51% in DC, 23% in MD, and 29% in VA).
Republicans --
McCain also won all three primaries. DC and Maryland were not close. Virginia was competitive with McCain beating Huckabee by 9% (50% to 41%).
Takeaways:
Democrats --
Obama has reeled off eight victories in a row and he now leads in the delegate count (even when you include the superdelegates). Clinton is supposed to be strong in two of the large upcoming primaries, but she's in trouble if she doesn't stop his momentum soon. Clinton still has more superdelegates than Obama, but she could start to lose some of them if she doesn't turn things around. John Lewis, former civil rights leader, is a superdelegate and was an early supporter of Clinton. He has now announced that he is switching from Hillary to Obama. Expect similar defections unless something dramatic happens in Hillary's favor in the very near future.
Republicans --
After these three losses, Huckabee cannot win the nomination (mathematically speaking). His effort was always the longest of long shots, but it's truly all but over now. Nevertheless, Huckabee seems to be having fun and he said that he plans on staying in the race until McCain gets the 1191 delegates needed to clinch the nomination. Mitt Romney, who dropped out last week, has now endorsed McCain. In doing so, he encouraged his delegates to put their support behind McCain.
McCain did better with conservatives in these primaries, but that's not surprising. Conservatives in DC and Maryland are more moderate than conservatives in red states. Huckabee did beat McCain amongst self-described conservatives in Virginia (which is more Republican-leaning than DC or Maryland). McCain still has a huge task ahead of him as he tries to rally the conservative base behind him.
Up next (excluding Guam): Hawaii and Wisconsin for the Democrats and Washington and Wisconsin for the GOP.
Democrats --
Obama won all three by huge margins (by 51% in DC, 23% in MD, and 29% in VA).
Republicans --
McCain also won all three primaries. DC and Maryland were not close. Virginia was competitive with McCain beating Huckabee by 9% (50% to 41%).
Takeaways:
Democrats --
Obama has reeled off eight victories in a row and he now leads in the delegate count (even when you include the superdelegates). Clinton is supposed to be strong in two of the large upcoming primaries, but she's in trouble if she doesn't stop his momentum soon. Clinton still has more superdelegates than Obama, but she could start to lose some of them if she doesn't turn things around. John Lewis, former civil rights leader, is a superdelegate and was an early supporter of Clinton. He has now announced that he is switching from Hillary to Obama. Expect similar defections unless something dramatic happens in Hillary's favor in the very near future.
Republicans --
After these three losses, Huckabee cannot win the nomination (mathematically speaking). His effort was always the longest of long shots, but it's truly all but over now. Nevertheless, Huckabee seems to be having fun and he said that he plans on staying in the race until McCain gets the 1191 delegates needed to clinch the nomination. Mitt Romney, who dropped out last week, has now endorsed McCain. In doing so, he encouraged his delegates to put their support behind McCain.
McCain did better with conservatives in these primaries, but that's not surprising. Conservatives in DC and Maryland are more moderate than conservatives in red states. Huckabee did beat McCain amongst self-described conservatives in Virginia (which is more Republican-leaning than DC or Maryland). McCain still has a huge task ahead of him as he tries to rally the conservative base behind him.
Up next (excluding Guam): Hawaii and Wisconsin for the Democrats and Washington and Wisconsin for the GOP.
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