Barack Obama: What went right
June 13th 2008 00:50
In my last post, I talked about what went wrong for Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primaries. Now, I'd like to talk about what went right for Barack Obama. He emerged from out of nowhere and managed to overcome a number of obstacles. In doing so, he took on and defeated the formidable Clinton juggernaut. How did he do it? Here are some of the things that went right for him:
* The media was behind him -- I previously mentioned that the media seemed to turn on Hillary. Conversely, the media was very friendly to Barack Obama. The folks at MSNBC were the head cheerleaders, but it wasn't just them. In general, the media quickly became enamored by the smooth-talking candidate and they were drinking deeply from the Obama Kool-Aid. A candidate can win without the fawning approval of the media, but it certainly helps when you have such a powerful ally.
* The money was flowing freely -- Obama set one record after another when it came to fundraising. Yes, he got money from big donors, but the big difference was in the small donors. To his credit, Obama recognized early on the importance of fundraising on the internet -- especially from small (often first-time) donors. He had money to burn during the primaries and that will only continue in the general election.
* His strategy was right on the mark -- Unlike Hillary, he recognized from the start that this was going to be a change election. It was a message that he was able to credibly push and it was a message that folks responded to. Eventually, even Hillary tried to become a "change" candidate. Now, McCain is pushing the notion of the "right kind of change". Obama cornered the market on the change mantra, though, and it carried him to victory in the Democratic primaries.
* Tabula rasa (blank slate) -- Obama has very little of a record to run on. To this point, he has largely run on broad, overarching philosophies and has avoided getting specific about his plans to address a number of our nation's problems. In doing so, he has essentially been a blank slate. Because of that, many voters project onto him their own views. They don't hear him espouse specific opinions that are contrary to their own and, as a result, they aren't averse to him being the President. It remains to be seen whether he can continue to get by without being specific about his policy plans, but it has served him well so far.
* New voters -- Obama has brought a large number of new voters into the political process. His appeal with African-American voters and young voters makes previous voting trends largely irrelevant. Even if Obama can't change the minds of voters who have been voting for the GOP, he could still easily win just by making the voting "pie" much bigger. So far, these new voters have been out in full force. If they continue to stay energized through November, they could march him straight to Pennsylvania Avenue.
Certainly, Obama has made some mistakes. In particular, his associations with Jeremiah Wright and Bill Ayers (amongst others) have hurt him. And his condescending comments about rural voters drove a wedge between him and many working-class voters. However, what he has been able to accomplish up to this point has been remarkable. Can he win in November? He's leading in polls now and he'll be facing a candidate (in McCain) who is having trouble energizing his own base. If Obama can avoid the injurious unforced errors that so often occur when you have a camera on you 24 hours a day, he has a good chance to become the next POTUS. Either way, it should be an exciting general election.
* The media was behind him -- I previously mentioned that the media seemed to turn on Hillary. Conversely, the media was very friendly to Barack Obama. The folks at MSNBC were the head cheerleaders, but it wasn't just them. In general, the media quickly became enamored by the smooth-talking candidate and they were drinking deeply from the Obama Kool-Aid. A candidate can win without the fawning approval of the media, but it certainly helps when you have such a powerful ally.
* The money was flowing freely -- Obama set one record after another when it came to fundraising. Yes, he got money from big donors, but the big difference was in the small donors. To his credit, Obama recognized early on the importance of fundraising on the internet -- especially from small (often first-time) donors. He had money to burn during the primaries and that will only continue in the general election.
* His strategy was right on the mark -- Unlike Hillary, he recognized from the start that this was going to be a change election. It was a message that he was able to credibly push and it was a message that folks responded to. Eventually, even Hillary tried to become a "change" candidate. Now, McCain is pushing the notion of the "right kind of change". Obama cornered the market on the change mantra, though, and it carried him to victory in the Democratic primaries.
* Tabula rasa (blank slate) -- Obama has very little of a record to run on. To this point, he has largely run on broad, overarching philosophies and has avoided getting specific about his plans to address a number of our nation's problems. In doing so, he has essentially been a blank slate. Because of that, many voters project onto him their own views. They don't hear him espouse specific opinions that are contrary to their own and, as a result, they aren't averse to him being the President. It remains to be seen whether he can continue to get by without being specific about his policy plans, but it has served him well so far.
* New voters -- Obama has brought a large number of new voters into the political process. His appeal with African-American voters and young voters makes previous voting trends largely irrelevant. Even if Obama can't change the minds of voters who have been voting for the GOP, he could still easily win just by making the voting "pie" much bigger. So far, these new voters have been out in full force. If they continue to stay energized through November, they could march him straight to Pennsylvania Avenue.
Certainly, Obama has made some mistakes. In particular, his associations with Jeremiah Wright and Bill Ayers (amongst others) have hurt him. And his condescending comments about rural voters drove a wedge between him and many working-class voters. However, what he has been able to accomplish up to this point has been remarkable. Can he win in November? He's leading in polls now and he'll be facing a candidate (in McCain) who is having trouble energizing his own base. If Obama can avoid the injurious unforced errors that so often occur when you have a camera on you 24 hours a day, he has a good chance to become the next POTUS. Either way, it should be an exciting general election.
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